Tactical Feed
Live tactical intelligence feed across your tracked domains. Source-attributed, severity-tagged, scoped to what your team is watching.
Capabilities
Thirty-five capabilities organized into the six things you do with Mapshock. Click an outcome below to jump to its capabilities, or scroll through.
See what is changing
Continuous monitoring of the entities, topics, and narratives you cannot afford to miss.
Set what matters to you — entities, topics, claims, source clusters. Mapshock surfaces material changes as they happen, with severity and recency stated. No daily scroll through irrelevant feeds; the signal comes to you.
Risk Radar
Track risk exposure across your priority entities and topics, severity-tiered with confidence stated alongside.
Narrative Evolution
Watch how a story changes over time: shifts in framing, source consensus, and confidence.
Topic Monitoring
Track any topic and surface alerts when significant changes are detected.
Entity Watches
Monitor specific entities (organizations, people, events) and surface changes as they happen.
Cross-Domain Signals
Connect developments across intelligence domains. Financial signals informing geopolitical reads, cyber activity informing defense assessments.
Tactical Intelligence
Alerts, entity watches, risk tracking, and situation reports, assembled into a single working surface.
Analysis Monitoring
Monitor any analysis for material changes: new evidence, confidence shifts, source contradictions, or updated claims.
Trend Tracking
Detect direction-change signals across entities, claims, and relationships over time.
Reason about what matters
Trace evidence across entities, claims, and time. Ask follow-ups. See the picture compound.
The Knowledge Map renders relationships across analyses; MARIA answers follow-ups with provenance. Hypothesis extraction surfaces competing explanations, not just the leading view. Every claim is traceable to graded sources.
Knowledge Map
Entities, relationships, and findings mapped across analyses. The intelligence picture compounds over time.
Graph Analytics
Network centrality, community detection, and PageRank across the entity-relationship layer, with multiple view modes for path tracing and cluster analysis.
Hypothesis Extraction
Competing explanations identified and structured. Alternative hypotheses surfaced so you see the full picture, not just the leading view.
MARIA
Conversational analysis layer embedded throughout the platform. Ask for explanations, alternative reads, source provenance, or follow-on questions on any briefing.
Claims Intelligence
Claim-level analysis with letter-graded sources, supporting and disputing evidence separated, and contradiction detection across the corpus.
Explore Mode
Exploratory chat workspace for open-ended investigation. Pivot freely between sources, claims, and entities before committing to a structured analysis.
Domain Coverage
Intelligence domains: geopolitical, financial, cyber, energy, defense, supply chain, competitive, and more.
Temporal Intelligence
Watch how entities, claims, and relationships evolve over time.
Stress-test conclusions
Make your strongest case survive adversarial scrutiny — before the room does.
Red-team your strongest hypothesis. Run formal debates between competing positions. Score robustness across evidence dependency graphs. Fork the analysis to compare alternative paths side by side.
Red Team Challenge
Stress-test your strongest hypothesis with alternative assessments, robustness scoring, and evidence dependency graphs.
Debate Workspace
Structured alternative-assessment workflow. Pit your strongest hypothesis against deliberate counter-positions to find what survives.
Scenarios Workspace
Evidence-driven scenario projection. Build, score, and compare alternative futures grounded in current claims.
Structural Contradictions
Logical inconsistencies surfaced across the entity-relationship layer. For example, entities flagged as both opposing and allied.
Analysis Branching
Fork any analysis to explore alternate paths. Compare branches side-by-side without losing the original line of reasoning.
Forecast with calibration
Probabilistic forecasts published with resolution dates. The track record is public — including the misses.
Predictions ship with explicit probabilities, resolution horizons, and confidence labels. Outcomes are tracked. The public track record shows calibration by confidence and horizon — including the forecasts we got wrong.
Predictions
Forecasts published with confidence, resolution horizon, and a Brier-scored track record. Resolved publicly against subsequent evidence.
Confidence Calibration
Every key finding labeled high, moderate, or low confidence. No false precision, uncertainty is stated, not hidden.
Brief stakeholders
Decision-ready deliverables in your stakeholders' format — claims source-graded, confidence labeled.
Structured briefs in formats your board recognizes. Dossiers on entities and events compiled from accumulated research. Reusable playbooks for the analyses your team runs regularly. Every conclusion ships with its evidence chain.
Structured Analysis
Structured analytical methods applied across intelligence domains, each with specialist framing and key questions.
Intelligence Dossiers
Intelligence profiles built from entities, findings, and research accumulated across analyses.
Playbooks
Built-in analytical workflows: Competing Hypotheses, Threat Assessment, Entity Deep Dive, Hypothesis Stress Test. Run on demand or on a schedule.
Morning Brief
Start your day with curated intelligence, critical alerts, watch items, and background developments.
Narrative Briefings
Analyses delivered as structured narrative, from question through evidence to calibrated assessment.
Build institutional memory
Every conclusion traceable, sources scored, methods reusable. Your team's calibrated intelligence picture compounds.
Source grading captures what each domain has earned the right to claim. Provenance tracing maps every conclusion back through the evidence chain. Memory and skills preserve the analytical workflows that worked. Your dashboard surfaces what you set up to track.
Memory & Skills
Your intelligence picture compounds across analyses. A skills library extends what the platform can investigate without losing context.
Provenance Tracing
Trace any finding back through evidence to original sources. Every conclusion has a chain you can follow.
Source Intelligence
Every source drawn from a graded domain corpus, each scored for reliability before it informs an analysis.
Source Integrity Check
Diversity warnings when source coverage skews to a single perspective. Independence scored alongside reliability.
Collection Planning
Intelligence gaps identified and surfaced. Targeted collection requirements generated to fill what the analysis doesn't yet cover.
Focus Areas
Track your priority domains and entities. Your dashboard surfaces developments across them without you re-asking each time.
The Methodology
10 Asymmetry Lenses
Analytical truth is the truth neither party in a situation can see from their own position. Each lens exposes a specific class of blind-spot that participants cannot see from inside — and is enforced as a verifiable production signature in every Mapshock analysis.
Tactical-Strategic Asymmetry
Geopolitics · Conflict
The same event has tactically-minor meaning to one actor and strategically-existential meaning to another. Forecasts from a single actor-scale produce systematically miscalibrated predictions.
Applied when: Both scales stated for the same event; predictions stratified by actor; the miscalibration that single-frame forecasts produce is named explicitly.
Capability-Intent Decoupling
Defense · Cyber
What an actor can do ≠ what they will do. Analyses anchored to capability over-predict action; analyses anchored to intent over-predict restraint. The truth lives in the gap.
Applied when: Capability and intent treated as separate variables; ACH run on intent when capability is high; "capability without intent" or "intent without capability" called out explicitly when present.
Reflexive Loop Detection
Finance · Elections · Deterrence
When the participants reading the analysis change the outcome being analyzed — markets react to the recession forecast; the electorate shifts on reading the poll — standard forecasting fails on reflexive systems.
Applied when: Reflexivity flag set per claim; confidence band auto-demoted on reflexive claims; the feedback mechanism named explicitly.
Stock-Flow Discrimination
Energy · Sovereign Debt · Climate
Accumulated state (total debt, installed capacity, ice mass) versus rate of change (deficit, generation, melt rate) produce different forecasts. Conflating them misses inflection points.
Applied when: Stock figure and flow figure both stated for every key variable; trajectory named; the inflection condition identified when applicable.
Coordination-Defection Mapping
Alliances · Coalitions · Cartels
What looks like "one actor" — a coalition, alliance, party, cartel — is often many actors who may defect under stress. Treating coalitions as unitary actors misses the defection cascade.
Applied when: Coalition decomposed into members with per-member defection-risk; binding factors named; stress points identified.
Time-Horizon Trade-Off
Technology · Diplomacy
Short-term tactical wins create long-term strategic losses, and inversely. Forecasts pinned to one horizon miss the cross-horizon trade-off where the asymmetry lives.
Applied when: 30-day, 90-day, 365-day horizon stratification; trade-offs across horizons named; the inflection point between horizons identified.
Inside-Outside Information Asymmetry
Domestic Politics · Corporate Intelligence
Insider sources have access but bias. Outsider sources have distance but lose signal. The truth requires triangulating both — neither pool alone closes the picture.
Applied when: Each source tagged Inside or Outside; bias risk surfaced for Inside sources; signal-loss risk surfaced for Outside sources; the triangulation made explicit.
Selection-Bias Correction
Media Analysis · Intelligence Channels
What gets reported ≠ what happens. Survivorship in startups, media-coverage skew, and intelligence-channel selection produce a sampled view of reality that systematically distorts forecasts.
Applied when: Coverage-gap section explicit — what is not being reported stated; absence-of-evidence distinguished from evidence-of-absence; sampling-bias risk surfaced per claim.
Counterfactual Construction
Crisis Analysis · Causal Claims
Causal claims ("X caused Y") cannot be assessed without "what would have happened without X." The counterfactual is the only access route to causation; without it, analysis is correlation dressed as causation.
Applied when: Counterfactual paragraph mandatory for any causal claim; confidence on the counterfactual stated separately; alternatives ruled out named.
Calibration Audit
Meta · All Domains
The analyst's historical track record per domain is the only honest bound on confidence in future forecasts. Without per-domain calibration, all confidence statements are aspirational.
Applied when: Per-domain accuracy surfaced on the public track record; current forecast confidence bounded by historical accuracy in that domain; calibration mismatch flagged when present.
Each lens is enforced at three layers: a structural rule embedded in every analysis, automated consistency checks, and an independent AI verification pass. See how we analyze →