Public Track Record
Every forecast we made, resolved or pending.
Transparent record of every forecast published by Mapshock's analytical engine. Outcomes are resolved against public evidence — right, wrong, or indeterminate.
Awaiting first resolution
Mapshock publishes predictions with stated probabilities, resolution dates, and falsifiable terms. When the deadline arrives, we record the outcome publicly — right, wrong, or indeterminate. No predictions have reached their resolution date yet. The earliest is August 15, 2026.
When predictions resolve, this page shows accuracy by confidence band (Brier score) — the calibrated-forecast moat number. Until then, the in-flight list below is the honest signal: what we've committed to publicly.
In flight
138
Earliest resolution
August 15, 2026
Still tracking
138 forecasts in progress — outcomes pending. Showing the first 3 below — sign in to see the rest.
The US will not formally extend USMCA beyond its current term, triggering mandatory annual review cycles through 2036 instead of confirming a 16-year renewal by end of 2026.
Made 2026-07-02 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · we said likely · ~70%
From: USMCA Renewal Uncertainty and North American Supply-Chain Continuity: Annual Review Framework ImplicationsArticle
By end of 2026, the share of organizations reporting both increased revenue and decreased costs from AI investments will remain at 12% or below.
Made 2026-07-01 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · we said likely · ~70%
From: AI Spending Surges While Most Companies Still Struggle to Show ProfitsAnalysis
Burkina Faso's military government will formally suspend or terminate its defense cooperation agreement with France by end of 2026.
Made 2026-07-01 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · we said likely · ~70%
From: Burkina Faso severs ties with France, signaling West African realignmentTactical
135 more pending forecasts visible after sign-in.
Sign in to see all & track them →Free account. Watching a forecast emails you when it resolves.
Updated daily. See today's pulse →