Public Track Record
Every forecast we made, resolved or pending.
Transparent record of every forecast published by Mapshock's analytical engine. Outcomes are resolved against public evidence — right, wrong, or indeterminate.
Awaiting first resolution
Mapshock publishes predictions with stated probabilities, resolution dates, and falsifiable terms. When the deadline arrives, we record the outcome publicly — right, wrong, or indeterminate. No predictions have reached their resolution date yet. The earliest is September 15, 2026.
When predictions resolve, this page shows accuracy by confidence band (Brier score) — the calibrated-forecast moat number. Until then, the in-flight list below is the honest signal: what we've committed to publicly.
In flight
190
Earliest resolution
September 15, 2026
Still tracking
190 forecasts in progress — outcomes pending. Showing the first 3 below — sign in to see the rest.
Defense prime contractors and second-tier suppliers will report increased hiring difficulties or extended qualification timelines for ITAR-cleared systems engineers as a direct result of DoD civilian workforce attrition between December 2024 and mid-2026.
Made 2026-08-20 · resolves by 2027-02-28 · we said more likely than not · ~60%
From: Pentagon workforce cuts threaten defense production speed despite parts availabilityAnalysis
By end of 2027, Iran will execute at least 2,000 people in a single calendar year, continuing or exceeding its 2025 execution rate of 2,159 deaths.
Made 2026-08-14 · resolves by 2027-12-31 · we said more likely than not · ~60%
From: Global Capital Execution Trends: State-Administered Justice Policy Expansion and International Humanitarian Law ImplicationsArticle
The U.S. Navy will formally extend the planned deployment cycle (Optimized Fleet Response Plan) beyond 36 months for at least one carrier strike group by December 31, 2026.
Made 2026-08-13 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · we said likely · ~70%
From: Naval Readiness Crisis: Operational Sustainability of Extended Carrier Deployments and Crew Welfare StandardsArticle
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